New US visa restrictions are prompting a significant shift in global technology talent, with Indian and Chinese professionals reconsidering their career paths amid increasing costs and uncertainty, potentially reshaping the international tech industry landscape.
Donald Trump’s tightening of H-1B rules is beginning to reverse one of the defining labour flows of the global technology industry: the movement of skilled workers from India and China to the United States. What was once a clear route to higher salaries and, eventually, a green card is now marked by heavier costs, stricter scrutiny and greater uncertainty for employers and visa holders alike.
According to The Straits Times, that shift is already pushing some professionals to leave. Deepak, an Indian tech worker who spent 15 years in the US, returned home after weighing the anxiety of losing legal status against the stability of life in India. He had already seen how a lay-off could start a 60-day clock on his H-1B stay, and the Trump administration’s proposed US$100,000 fee for new applications only deepened the sense that the system was becoming less predictable. Although a federal judge later struck that fee down, the administration has continued to tighten the process, including by proposing a separate US$4,000 surcharge for extensions and renewals.
The pressure is showing up in the numbers as well. Xpheno, a Bengaluru-based talent consulting firm, estimates that about 15,100 Indian professionals returned to India in 2025, up from 9,800 in 2024, with another 7,300 already back by 2026. Separately, US Citizenship and Immigration Services data suggests H-1B approvals for the top 100 sponsoring employers, including Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Infosys and TCS, are on track to fall by more than 10 per cent in fiscal 2026 from the previous year. Reuters also reported that the wider US technology market has been weakened by layoffs, hiring freezes and AI-led restructuring, leaving fewer openings for foreign applicants.
The effect is not confined to individual careers. According to reports from Investing.com and the South China Morning Post, India’s $280 billion to $283 billion information technology services industry is having to reconsider a long-standing playbook built around rotating staff into US projects. If visa costs rise and approvals become harder to secure, that model becomes more expensive and less reliable. Analysts have warned that the result could be operational disruption for Indian IT firms and a sharper squeeze on margins, while smaller US companies and start-ups may also struggle to compete for the same talent pool.
For some returnees, though, the move is not only defensive. The Straits Times reported that Indian Global Capability Centres are absorbing many of those coming back, particularly workers with specialist data and artificial intelligence skills. China is seeing a parallel pull in the other direction, with the country’s own technology sector offering a less uncertain path for professionals unwilling to wait out the US visa system. For those leaving, the calculation is increasingly practical rather than ideological: fewer immigration risks, more mobility and, in some cases, better prospects close to home.
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