TrendForce forecasts a narrower decline in global notebook shipments due to earlier purchasing and improving supply, but warns that soaring CPU, DRAM, and SSD costs could require brands to raise prices by up to 80% by 2026 to maintain margins.
TrendForce has said that easing CPU shortages, earlier purchasing by brands and consumer upgrade demand pulled forward into the first half of the year could narrow the decline in global notebook shipments to 9.4% in 2026. The forecast suggests the market is still shrinking, but by less than previously expected as supply conditions improve from the second quarter and buying patterns shift earlier in the year.
The research firm also warned that the cost structure of laptops has changed sharply. In its comparison with a mainstream notebook carrying a $900 recommended retail price in the first quarter of 2025, CPU, DRAM and SSD components made up about 45% of the bill of materials. By the third quarter of 2026, that share had climbed to 68%, reflecting a steep rise in memory and storage costs as well as stronger pricing for processors.
TrendForce estimated that, if manufacturers want to preserve the same gross margin seen in the first quarter of 2025, retail prices would need to rise by 80% by the third quarter of 2026 to offset higher component costs. That would leave brands with a difficult choice between passing on costs to buyers or accepting weaker profitability.
For now, the industry still has some room to soften the impact through inventory and earlier procurement. TrendForce said market share competition, new product launches, commercial demand and stocks bought at lower prices should continue to support shipments in the near term. But as cheaper inventory is worked through, the buffer will shrink, making future notebook prices more directly dependent on the latest CPU, DRAM and SSD costs.
The company’s outlook implies that the second half of 2026 may be weaker than the first, with a forecast split of roughly 53:47 between the two halves of the year. That timing matters because it suggests some demand has already been brought forward, leaving less momentum later in the year. For buyers and vendors alike, the key variables will be retail price increases, replacement cycles and how much margin brands are willing to sacrifice to protect volume.
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