With a 15% Section 232 tariff on polysilicon imminent, solar developers must act swiftly to secure supply and avoid steep price hikes, as module costs surge by over 40% amid tightening procurement windows.
Anza, the solar and energy storage data and analytics company, says developers face a narrowing procurement window as a 15% Section 232 tariff on polysilicon imports is due to take effect on 4 December. The measure is expected to flow through the solar supply chain, lifting costs for polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells and finished modules, and forcing buyers to decide quickly whether to secure supply before the new pricing regime bites.
The company said the median price for imported modules was $0.27 per watt before the 7 August proclamation, but had risen to $0.38 per watt for delivery after 4 December among suppliers that had already repriced. That implies an increase of more than 40% for some buyers. In a separate assessment, analysts cited by pv magazine and other industry publications warned that the market could see a step-up in module pricing well beyond the more modest increases developers had initially expected after the trade action was announced.
Anza is advising procurement teams to prioritise inventory already in the United States, examine which shipments can still clear customs before the deadline and assess whether domestic-content supply can be locked in now. It also says developers should scrutinise contract language covering retroactive tariff exposure and stockpiling risk, and seek written commitments from suppliers where possible. The company added that blending domestic and imported products could, in some cases, help reduce overall capital expenditure.
There is still some offsetting capacity in the U.S. market. The Solar Energy Industries Association says the country already has 75.3GW of module manufacturing capacity, enough to cover present demand. But capacity further up the supply chain remains thinner, and SEIA expects ingot and cell manufacturing to rise over the next year, with more meaningful growth in polysilicon and wafer production not expected until 2028. Anza president Aaron Hall said developers are now in the “most critical procurement window” and cannot wait until the tariff deadline to make a purchasing decision because modules still need time to ship and clear U.S. customs.
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