A new report forecasts India’s consumer durables industry will expand significantly by 2030, driven by rising household incomes, increased localisation efforts, and a focus on boosting exports and technological innovation to maintain competitiveness.
India’s consumer durables industry is poised for a sustained expansion through 2030, with a joint assessment by Boston Consulting Group and the Confederation of Indian Industry projecting annual growth of 8% to 10% and a market size of Rs 3-3.25 lakh crore. The report suggests the sector is moving beyond a simple demand recovery story and into a longer phase of structural growth, supported by stronger household incomes, wider access to consumer finance and a steady shift towards higher-value products.
The study, launched at the CII Consumer Electronics & Durables Summit, argues that the biggest near-term demand drivers are familiar but still underpenetrated: rising premiumisation, replacement demand and the continuing rise of nuclear households. Business Standard noted that household ownership of major appliances in India remains well below levels seen in comparable regional markets, leaving considerable room for further adoption, particularly in categories such as washing machines and room air conditioners.
The more consequential message in the report is that growth in sales alone will not determine how much value the industry retains at home. The researchers estimate that the market’s expansion could create an additional Rs 40,000-50,000 crore opportunity in domestic value addition, but only if India narrows its reliance on imported components. Current localisation ranges from about 25% to 70% across major categories, with televisions and room air conditioners still heavily dependent on foreign inputs, while refrigerators and washing machines have a deeper domestic sourcing base.
The report identifies display panels, compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing-machine motors as some of the most import-dependent inputs. It says deeper localisation is being constrained by access to technology, limited manufacturing scale and cost competitiveness. Even so, it sees scope for domestic value addition to rise from roughly 50% to 55% today to 65% to 70% by 2030 as component capacity develops and supply chains mature.
India’s export performance remains a separate challenge. Despite a growing manufacturing base, the country still accounts for less than 1% of global consumer durables trade, according to the report and BCG’s accompanying analysis. That gap, the authors argue, means the next phase must be about more than import substitution. They call for stronger industrial clusters, technology partnerships, better testing and certification systems, improved logistics and greater research spending to build scale and credibility in overseas markets.
The report also places artificial intelligence in the industrial policy debate, saying generative and agentic AI could raise productivity across manufacturing, supply chains, product design and customer service. BCG’s accompanying note says the goal is to build a consumer durables base that is not only more self-reliant, but also competitive enough to serve domestic and export markets.
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