Apple’s launch of its first foldable smartphone marks a strategic move in a niche segment that is poised for growth despite a record-breaking decline in global smartphone shipments, highlighting differentiation challenges and evolving AI ecosystems.
Apple’s belated entry into foldable phones has intensified a segment that is still small but gaining strategic importance. Research firms had already pointed to a modest 2025 market, with Omdia estimating global foldable smartphone shipments at 17.2 million units, while Counterpoint Research expects the category to grow in 2026 and sees Samsung retaining the largest share as Apple arrives with its first model. The broader handset market, however, is moving in the opposite direction: Counterpoint now says global smartphone shipments are heading for a 2.1% decline in 2026, the steepest annual fall on record, as higher memory costs and geopolitical disruption weigh on demand and supply chains.
Early reactions to Apple’s foldable device have focused on its engineering rather than its completeness. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has said initial testers have praised the hinge mechanism and the device’s compact feel in the pocket, but questions remain over the visibility of the crease and whether Apple has fully matched the most mature rival panels. That uncertainty matters because in a category where hardware differences are narrowing, perceived refinement can influence whether consumers see a foldable as an experiment or a true premium upgrade.
The trade-offs are clearer in pricing and features. Macworld reported that Apple’s first foldable is priced at $1,999, but omits Face ID, a dedicated telephoto camera, a variable aperture and the Action button, largely because the folded chassis leaves insufficient room for the TrueDepth camera system. By comparison, Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 starts at $1,899 and rivals such as the Pixel 11 Pro Fold include zoom optics. TechRadar has argued that such compromises may be acceptable to some buyers, but they are harder to justify at the very top end of the market, where expectations around biometrics, photography and convenience are highest.
Samsung’s advantage is not simply in price or specification. Counterpoint says the Korean group’s eight-year head start has given it a more mature product line, a broader retail footprint and more refined folding behaviour built from real-world usage data. That head start also matters for software. On devices such as the iPhone Duo and the Galaxy Z Fold8, both offering a roughly 7.6-inch inner display with a tablet-like aspect ratio, the experience increasingly depends on how well applications adapt to the larger screen. Samsung has had years to work with developers on that optimisation, making software support one of the most important barriers for later entrants.
Artificial intelligence is becoming another dividing line. Apple has said Siri’s AI features are still in testing on iOS 27, suggesting that its on-device assistant strategy remains in an early stage, whereas Samsung has already integrated Gemini across 49 applications and brought it to millions of users. Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal said Apple’s first releases should improve over time, but the near-term comparison favours Samsung’s more established ecosystem. In the US, where Counterpoint says smartphone sales fell 5% year on year in the second quarter of 2026 amid pricing pressure, the broader market backdrop makes those product differences more consequential: in a weaker environment, buyers are likely to be more selective about which compromises they will accept.
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