Chinese domestic suppliers are expected to dominate over 90% of their AI chip market this year, as US export limits accelerate the country’s self-reliance, with Nvidia’s market share slipping sharply but still attempting to maintain a presence.
Analysts expect Nvidia and AMD to account for only about 10% of China’s artificial intelligence chip market by the end of the year, as domestic suppliers take almost all of the rest under continuing US export limits and other restrictions, according to IXBT News. The report says China’s AI chip market is still forecast to expand sharply, rising 83%, but that growth will be driven mainly by home-grown hardware rather than foreign suppliers.
That shift is already visible in shipment data. Tom’s Hardware reported that Chinese semiconductor firms captured 41% of the domestic AI server market in 2025, delivering 1.65 million AI GPUs out of 4 million total. Nvidia remained the largest single supplier, but its share fell to 55% from 95%, while Huawei became the leading local player. Alibaba’s T-Head, Baidu’s Kunlunxin and Cambricon also expanded their presence as Beijing pressed data-centre operators to use domestic chips.
The market reshaping has been accelerated by US export controls. Tom’s Hardware reported that restrictions on advanced AI GPU sales tightened sharply in 2025, briefly changed course in mid-year and then remained a major barrier to sales into China. Even so, Chinese chipmakers are still widely viewed as trailing Nvidia and AMD in raw performance, with Tom’s Hardware saying the gap remains substantial despite rapid progress.
Nvidia is trying to preserve at least part of its China business with products designed to fit within sanctions. According to IXBT News, the company plans to sell the RTX Pro 5000 Blackwell in China with 48GB or 72GB of GDDR7 memory. The card would be far cheaper than dedicated AI accelerators, while still offering a compliant option for professional workloads as Chinese rivals continue to strengthen.
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