ASML raises sales target as AI orders outpace capacity and export curbs loom

The Dutch chip-equipment maker expects 2026 revenue of up to €45 billion, but unconfirmed hybrid-bonding technology and proposed US restrictions create fresh uncertainty.

ASML has lifted its full-year revenue target again, but the updated outlook leaves the Dutch chip-equipment maker exposed to two uncertainties: a product it has not publicly confirmed and a US export proposal it is trying to resist. The company’s own figures remain strong. Third-quarter 2026 net sales came in at €11.7 billion, gross margin reached 57.5%, and net profit was €5.0 billion, according to the filing and subsequent reporting on the results. ASML now expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, and it has raised full-year revenue guidance to €44 billion to €45 billion, with gross margin forecast at about 56%.

That increase reflects demand that still appears to be outpacing supply. Reporting by Tom’s Hardware and other outlets said ASML expects customer orders tied to artificial intelligence investment to remain exceptionally strong, with major chipmakers continuing to expand capacity for advanced logic and memory production. The company has also said it plans to expand output by around 30% in both 2027 and 2028, yet chief executive Christophe Fouquet has warned that demand may still exceed what the group can build.

The guidance upgrade was broadly welcomed on Wall Street, although analysts did not move in lockstep. JPMorgan pared back its price target while keeping an overweight rating, whereas Citi raised its target and reiterated a buy recommendation. The split was modest and largely reflected differences in valuation rather than in the basic view that ASML remains structurally well placed in the chip supply chain.

A separate issue is more speculative. Reuters reported that ASML may be working on hybrid-bonding technology after semiconductor research group SemiAnalysis pointed to a set of patent applications. ASML has not confirmed the product line, and patents alone do not establish whether a tool will reach customers or generate revenue. For investors, that means the company’s confirmed guidance should be separated from any unannounced strategic optionality.

Export policy is the other variable. Reuters reported that finance chief Roger Dassen has argued against proposed US restrictions under the Match Act, which could limit sales of deep ultraviolet lithography tools to China. His warning was not only about foregone orders. He also said tighter curbs could accelerate China’s efforts to build a domestic alternative, a risk that remains his assessment rather than a proven outcome. Meanwhile, Reuters also reported this week that some customers have already expressed interest in placing orders for tools due in 2029 and 2030, underlining how far ahead the planning cycle now runs.