Rising memory costs and supply shortages are exacerbating a slowdown in global smartphone shipments, with industry forecasts suggesting a downturn to lows not seen since 2013 and a shift toward second-hand devices gaining momentum.
Memory prices are emerging as a new pressure point for the global smartphone market, with fresh industry forecasts pointing to a sharp slowdown in shipments this year and into 2026. FDM CCS Insight said global smartphone shipments fell 7% in the second quarter from a year earlier and 3% from the first quarter, and it now expects an overall decline of 12% in 2026. Counterpoint Research has separately projected an even steeper fall next year, arguing that the market could sink to its lowest level since 2013 as memory supply tightens.
The latest weakness is uneven. Developed markets such as Europe and North America have slipped by only low single digits, while emerging markets have fallen more sharply because buyers there are more sensitive to higher prices. That pattern is consistent with earlier industry reporting, which has repeatedly shown that weaker demand tends to hit lower-income markets first when inflation, inventory problems or financing costs rise.
FDM CCS Insight said the secondary market is benefiting from the shift away from new handsets. Second-hand phone sales rose 3% year on year and are expected to increase by almost 10% over the full year, while refurbished devices are attracting buyers who would otherwise have purchased new models. The firm also said rising memory costs, driven by a global shortage, pushed new smartphone prices 13% higher in the second quarter than in the first, with further increases expected in the second half of the year.
That squeeze is now feeding through to used-device pricing as well. FDM CCS Insight said stronger demand and limited supply are pushing refurbished prices higher, while fewer trade-ins in the US are reducing the flow of handsets into the second-hand market. At the same time, exports from China and Japan are helping offset the shortfall. The broader industry context is grim: IDC has previously linked global shipment declines to soft demand, inflation, macroeconomic uncertainty and excess inventory, and Counterpoint now says a memory supply crunch could keep pressure on the market well into 2027.
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