Memory supply crunch extends into 2026 as industry warns of prolonged shortages

Industry leaders express diverging views on the severity and duration of the memory market shortage, with some warning it could last until 2026 amid rising demand and capacity constraints.

The dispute over whether the memory market is easing has widened into a broader warning that supply pressure may last far longer than some PC makers have suggested. According to remarks attributed to Phison chief executive Khein-Seng Pua and summarised by the Taiwanese financial site BigGo, the shortage is still in its early phase and is being driven by demand that goes well beyond personal computers. He reportedly said that “money can’t always buy it” and added that “seems only Acer isn’t suffering”, a pointed response to Acer’s recent attempts to play down fears of a prolonged crunch.

That pushback matters because Acer’s chairman, Jason Chen, has argued that warnings of a shortage running to 2030 are overstated and that memory makers are helping inflate fears to defend margins. He has said prices should begin to ease as Chinese capacity comes on stream, with PC prices potentially falling by late 2027. But industry reporting suggests the current problem is already severe: XMG has recently set out how tight its own supply situation has become, while DRAM prices have reportedly risen almost sixfold over the past year, leaving little sign of relief in the near term.

Pua’s view is more pessimistic and extends beyond DRAM to NAND flash as well. Reports from Tom’s Hardware and TechRadar quote him warning that shortages could affect consumer electronics firms as early as 2026, with some manufacturers allegedly being asked for multi-year cash commitments in advance. He also argued that the real bottleneck for AI edge systems is memory rather than raw compute, and that the issue is being amplified by the rapid build-out of data centres and broader AI infrastructure, which require large volumes of both DRAM and storage.

The longer-term outlook remains uncertain, but the near-term picture is still one of strain. Much of the expected new manufacturing capacity is not due online until around 2028, and even then some forecasts suggest supply may still lag demand. In the summer, one widely cited projection said that all planned additions would still cover only 76% of anticipated demand by 2030. That implies the industry may be entering a prolonged adjustment period rather than moving towards a quick recovery, even if Chinese production eventually eases some of the pressure in its domestic market and parts of Asia.