Omdia forecasts satellite IoT connections to skyrocket from 7.7 million in 2023 to nearly 198 million by 2035, driven by rapid adoption in automotive and industrial sectors amidst declining costs and expanding satellite networks.
Omdia says satellite IoT is moving from a niche capability towards a mass-market connectivity layer, with global connections forecast to rise from 7.7 million in 2023 to 197.7 million by 2035. The firm puts the implied growth rate at 31%, with low Earth orbit systems expanding far faster than legacy geostationary services as launch volumes increase, coverage improves and unit costs fall.
The timing matters as much as the technology, according to John Canali, Omdia’s principal analyst for IoT. He said enterprises are increasingly looking for global coverage without dead zones and for more resilience when terrestrial networks are unavailable, especially as connected devices become more data-heavy and more automated. That demand is expected to spread across agriculture, environmental monitoring, defence, energy, utilities, transport and logistics.
Automotive is emerging as the most striking use case. Omdia expects connected vehicles using satellite links to rise from about 11,000 in 2023 to more than 112 million by 2035, a forecast that implies 115% compound annual growth. The company names Geely, Tesla, BMW and Stellantis among manufacturers testing or deploying satellite connectivity as part of a “network of networks” approach, where vehicles can move between terrestrial and non-terrestrial links as coverage changes.
The broader forecast landscape is less uniform, largely because analysts define the market differently. Some track connections, while others count revenue from services, equipment, software or integrated satellite-enabled solutions. That helps explain why estimates vary from Omdia’s connection-led view to revenue-based forecasts from IoT Analytics, ABI Research, Juniper Research, Grand View Research and others, yet all point to the same direction of travel: rapid growth, particularly in low-power industrial use cases and vehicle connectivity.
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