US-India trade aims for $500bn by 2030 amid call for clearer rules and strategic cooperation

US ambassador Sergio Gor urges both nations to enhance the business environment through clearer tax regulations, stronger intellectual property protections, and expanded strategic sectors, as they target a $500bn trade relationship by 2030 amidst growing technology and defence cooperation.

US ambassador to India Sergio Gor has urged both countries to create a more predictable business environment, arguing that clearer tax rules, steadier regulation and stronger intellectual property protection are needed if commercial links are to reach their next phase. Speaking at the IACC National Convention 2026 in Mumbai, he said the two economies have already moved from about $20bn in goods and services trade two decades ago to more than $240bn, and that officials in both capitals are now aiming for $500bn by 2030.

Gor framed the relationship as one built on long-term strategic confidence, while also identifying the main obstacles that still weigh on companies. He called for “candid, trust-based engagement” on export controls and technology transfers, and argued that investors need legal certainty before committing capital to innovation and scale-up. That emphasis reflects a broader concern in the business community: the Council on Foreign Relations has noted that export controls have constrained technology trade, with annual India-related licensing under the US Bureau of Industry and Security remaining relatively small.

The ambassador also pointed to the growing breadth of the partnership beyond traditional trade. He said cooperation is expanding across artificial intelligence, aerospace, defence, energy and other strategic sectors, and linked that momentum to a wider “trust initiative” launched by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi early in his second term. According to Gor, the programme is intended to accelerate work on AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, defence and critical minerals.

Business and policy analysis suggests the commercial relationship is becoming more integrated, but also more complex. The India Brand Equity Foundation says the US is India’s third-largest investor and a major export market, while KPMG has argued that future growth is likely to come from digital services, semiconductor manufacturing, green hydrogen and defence production. CSIS has likewise described US-India technology ties as moving into a more structured phase, with sector-specific initiatives already producing visible industrial and research outcomes.

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