As governments impose stricter customs regulations on low-value parcels, the booming cross-border ecommerce segment faces a slowdown, prompting logistics shifts and potential market realignment.
Tougher customs rules on low-value parcels are beginning to cool one of air cargo’s fastest-growing demand streams, according to Trade and Transport Group. The consultancy says the cross-border ecommerce boom has helped sustain intercontinental freight volumes, but that the model is now under pressure as governments tighten treatment of small shipments and retailers adapt their logistics chains.
Trade and Transport Group estimates that cross-border ecommerce made up almost 18% of intercontinental air cargo traffic last year, even though it represented only about 6% of global online sales. China remains the clear centre of gravity, with more than four-fifths of cross-border ecommerce revenue originating there and almost all of that tied to Temu, Shein and AliExpress. The report says those three platforms account for nearly all Chinese ecommerce exports.
The first half of 2026 showed the strain. Revenue in the segment fell 4.5%, with declines across all major markets except Asia-Pacific. In the US, the removal of the de minimis duty exemption for low-value goods from China cut monthly ecommerce airfreight volumes from roughly 110,000 tonnes to about 35,000 tonnes, although Trade and Transport says the market has started to stabilise since May. S&P Global has also reported that trans-Pacific air cargo demand weakened as the China-US ecommerce surge lost momentum.
Pressure is now spreading beyond the US. Last month’s €3 per item customs charge on low-value ecommerce shipments in the European Union raises the risk of a broader slowdown, the consultancy warns. It says tighter customs treatment is likely to push more sellers towards local inventory, regional fulfilment and consolidated freight, while shifting some volumes from air to sea. That would make cross-border ecommerce resemble traditional retail logistics more closely, with consequences for airline capacity, freight yields and the balance between express and forwarder-driven cargo. The wider air cargo market remains significant: IATA said in a 2025 report that air freight continued to support trade through tariff volatility by carrying high-value and time-sensitive goods, even as policy uncertainty reshaped flows.
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