South Korea’s planned semiconductor expansion could face a new constraint as ASML warns that even planned capacity increases may not meet demand, with chipmakers already seeking equipment for 2029 and 2030.
Securing advanced chipmaking equipment is becoming a fresh constraint on South Korea’s semiconductor expansion plans, as ASML warned that its planned output increases for 2027 and 2028 may still fall short of demand. Reuters reported that the Dutch supplier, which dominates the market for extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, is already seeing customers place orders for delivery as far out as 2029 and 2030, a sign that supply pressure could persist well beyond the next investment cycle.
The issue matters because South Korea is preparing a major build-out of memory-chip capacity in several industrial clusters. In Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, SK hynix has already started work on one fabrication complex, while Samsung Electronics is due to begin construction on another later this month. Both companies are also expected to take part in planned large-scale semiconductor sites in the Jeonnam-Gwangju Special Metropolitan City area, where local authorities are pushing for construction to start next year and mass production in 2030.
ASML said its existing expansion plan, which calls for a 30 per cent increase in capacity in 2027 and a further 30 per cent in 2028, will not be enough to meet customer requirements. The company’s equipment includes low-numerical-aperture EUV lithography machines and DUV immersion systems, both of which are central to making the most advanced memory chips. These tools are not easily substituted, which makes lead times and order timing critical for chipmakers planning new fabs.
The supply question is especially relevant for Korea because equipment procurement typically takes 18 months to two years from order to delivery. That means many of today’s orders reflect demand set around 2025, while the larger uncertainty lies in whether strong appetite for chips, particularly from AI-related investment, will continue into 2028, 2029 and 2030. An industry official told Korean media that the situation does not yet amount to a bottleneck, but added that a shortage could emerge if demand remains elevated for an extended period.
ASML chief financial officer Roger Dassen told analysts that the company is being cautious about taking orders too far into the future because it does not want to overcommit delivery slots. The company is also weighing further increases to capacity beyond the 30 per cent lift already planned for 2028. In related reporting, the company has signalled that pricing will rise from 2027, with the full effect expected in 2028, underscoring how tight the market for lithography tools has become.
For South Korea, the concern is not just whether land, power and permits are available for the new clusters, but whether the essential machines will arrive in time to match the construction schedule. If demand for ASML’s tools remains strong, equipment access could become as important as industrial policy in determining how quickly the country’s next generation of semiconductor fabs can move from planning to production.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for informational purposes only. Readers are advised to exercise their own judgement, conduct due diligence, or consult a qualified expert before acting on any information provided.
