Proposed Chinese controls may not disrupt India’s immediate module output, but could delay efforts to build domestic capacity in ingots, wafers, cells and polysilicon.
China’s proposed curbs on exports of key solar technologies could complicate India’s plan to build a fully integrated domestic manufacturing base, even if the near-term effect on module output remains limited.
Industry executives told businessline that the immediate supply of finished modules is unlikely to be disrupted because existing production lines can still run with imported wafers. The greater concern is for the next phase of expansion, when Indian manufacturers hope to move further upstream into cells, wafers, ingots and polysilicon. China’s Ministry of Commerce has proposed export controls on 12 next-generation solar manufacturing technologies, including processes linked to perovskite and tandem cells, thin silicon wafers and polysilicon. The draft remains open for consultation until 15 November.
Vinay Rastogi, chief business officer and director at Premier Energies, said the restrictions are likely to be tiered according to how advanced the technology is, with newer and more efficient processes facing the tightest controls. He said there should be no short-term disruption to current business models and no material sector-wide effect over the next two to three years. In his view, the main impact will arrive later, when newer technologies become commercially important and more widely adopted.
The proposed restrictions could be more serious for Indian firms that are trying to enter the upstream part of the solar value chain. Arulkumar Shanmugasundram, chief executive and managing director of SWELECT Energy Systems, said the most sensitive area is ingots, where China dominates both production and the machinery used to make it. He noted that non-Chinese suppliers do exist for cells, wafers and polysilicon, but argued that ingot technology is more difficult to replace quickly. He also suggested that some global equipment makers, while technically capable, still manufacture in China, which could force a wider reorganisation of supply chains if exports are constrained.
Amit Manohar, secretary-general of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association, said manufacturers could deepen ties with equipment and materials suppliers in Germany, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the United States while building more domestic engineering and research capability. The policy backdrop is also significant: the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has already extended domestic sourcing requirements to cover ingots and wafers, with the deadline for compliant solar projects set for February 2028. Deloitte India’s Anujesh Dwivedi said the effect of any Chinese controls will depend on whether they become a blanket ban or a licensing regime, adding that lead times for equipment could lengthen if approvals are required and if supplies have not already been secured.
The wider implications extend beyond India’s manufacturing sector. China supplied the overwhelming majority of India’s solar cell imports in the 2026 fiscal year, according to industry estimates cited by now.solar, underlining how dependent the market remains on Chinese supply chains. Analysts cited by Financial Express said the proposal could also, in the longer term, support India’s backward integration ambitions by encouraging alternative sourcing and domestic capability. For now, however, the final shape of the rules will determine whether the outcome is a manageable delay or a more significant obstacle to India’s solar industrial strategy.
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