Apple is reconsidering its hardware shipment forecasts for 2026 due to a widening DRAM shortage impacting manufacturer capacity, driven by AI infrastructure demand and complex global supply issues, prompting product strategy adjustments and new sourcing efforts.
Apple is trimming its hardware shipment plans for 2026 as tight DRAM supply ripples through its manufacturing chain, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. His assessment points to a familiar but still costly problem in the semiconductor industry: memory makers are under pressure from demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, leaving less room for consumer devices. That has forced Apple to adjust production assumptions earlier than usual and to plan processor output around the memory it expects to secure, rather than around ideal factory throughput.
Kuo said Apple and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. do not appear to be in a crisis of the sort suggested by some reports, including claims that large batches of chips were built and then left waiting for packaging because memory had not arrived. He argued that Apple typically maps out TSMC production at least three months ahead and would have little reason to pay for extra work-in-progress inventory if the bottleneck sits elsewhere in the supply chain. In his view, the shortage is real, but the more dramatic picture of stranded wafers is unlikely given how closely the two companies coordinate.
The wider supply-chain picture supports the idea that Apple is dealing with a broader memory squeeze rather than an isolated packaging issue. Apple has already acknowledged that storage and memory parts are in short supply, while TSMC said in its latest earnings call that higher inventory levels were mainly linked to the ramp-up of its 2nm process. That matters because inventory at a foundry includes more than chips waiting for final assembly. It also covers raw materials, finished goods and spare parts. TSMC’s 2nm line is also serving other customers, including AMD and MediaTek, which makes it harder to attribute its inventory pattern to Apple alone.
The pressure is already affecting Apple’s product strategy. According to reports from Macworld, the company has cut back memory options on some Mac models, including the Mac Studio and Mac mini, in both the US and UK. Separate reporting from Tom’s Hardware suggests the problem could also complicate the iPhone 18 cycle, with around $1 billion of processor wafers reportedly waiting for packaging linked to DRAM shortages. Apple is also said to be exploring additional memory sources, including China’s CXMT, although that option carries geopolitical risk. For now, the immediate issue is not a collapse in demand but a supply chain that is becoming more expensive and less flexible just as AI-related chip demand keeps absorbing capacity.
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