Global smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter to their lowest level for the period since 2012, as an AI-led memory crunch raises costs and puts buyers off upgrades.
Smartphone shipments fell sharply in the third quarter of 2026, with Counterpoint Research saying global volumes dropped 20% year on year to their lowest third-quarter level since 2012. The firm said the market is being squeezed by a severe memory supply crunch, as DRAM and NAND chips are diverted towards artificial intelligence infrastructure and server hardware.
Counterpoint has also cut its full-year outlook, forecasting a 13.9% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026, which it says would be the steepest annual fall on record. In a separate note, the research group said the downturn is being driven not only by scarce supply, but by higher bill-of-materials costs across the industry, especially in entry-level devices. It revised average selling price assumptions upwards as manufacturers pass on at least part of the higher component costs.
The pressure is most visible in the premium segment, where companies are still finding demand for high-end devices and foldables, even as overall unit sales weaken. Counterpoint said Samsung led the market in the third quarter with a 23% share, supported by strong initial demand for its latest foldable range, while Apple reached 22% and crossed the 20% mark for the first time in a third quarter. Both companies still recorded year-on-year shipment declines.
Consumers, however, appear increasingly reluctant to pay more. Samsung has already raised prices on its Galaxy S26 range, while Apple’s latest Pro models and its first foldable arrived at higher price points than the previous generation. Counterpoint said half of the people it surveyed across the US, UK, India, China and Germany plan to wait for holiday discounts before buying a new handset, rising to 56% among Gen Z respondents. Analysts say that may push more buyers towards refurbished phones, repairs, trade-in schemes and financing offers, at a time when budget models are becoming harder to keep affordable.
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