China's AI chip market to be dominated by domestic suppliers by 2026 as US restrictions bite

TrendForce forecasts a dramatic shift in China’s artificial intelligence chip market, with domestic vendors expected to capture 90% of shipments by 2026 amid ongoing US export restrictions and Beijing’s push for self-reliance.

TrendForce expects the balance of China’s artificial intelligence chip market to shift sharply towards domestic suppliers in 2026 as U.S. export controls continue to limit Nvidia and AMD’s access. The market research firm said local chips could account for 90% of shipments, leaving the two American vendors with about 10%, a change driven by both regulatory pressure and Beijing’s push for self-reliance in advanced computing.

The forecast builds on evidence that Chinese buyers are already moving away from U.S. hardware. Tom’s Hardware reported that domestic chipmakers held 41% of China’s AI server market in 2025, shipping 1.65 million AI GPUs, while Nvidia’s share fell to 55% from 95% a year earlier. Huawei was the largest local supplier, followed by Alibaba’s T-Head, with AMD, Baidu’s Kunlunxin and Cambricon also present in the market.

The same reporting suggests the shift is not just about supply but also policy. In April 2025, Washington tightened controls on advanced AI GPU exports, including Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308, and although some restrictions were eased later, the licensing process remained uncertain. Tom’s Hardware also reported in April 2026 that U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Nvidia still had not sold any H200 chips to China, despite earlier approvals and reported orders, because Beijing was limiting imports to support domestic vendors.

Nvidia is still trying to preserve a foothold. TrendForce said the company is preparing a China-specific variant of the RTX Pro 5000, using GDDR7 memory to fit within U.S. rules, while earlier reports had pointed to possible sales of the RTX 6000D to Chinese customers. That comes as Huawei expands its own AI hardware push, with Tom’s Hardware reporting that the company is on track to become China’s dominant supplier in 2026, helped by mass production of its 950PR chip and growing use of homegrown systems such as DeepSeek’s inference workloads.